June 24, 2002; Encana Has An Abundance of Growth Projects

Successor to the ownership of the railroad land grant property and provincial military lands, Encana has premium assets in Alberta even before it looks elsewhere.  Ironically as Encana’s predecessors expanded outside of their traditional area, they made impressive discoveries in supposedly picked over places where the industry leaders have long been active.  Remarkably the company has some of the best growth potential in the industry offshore Old Scotland, offshore New Scotland, in the U.S. Rockies, as well as in British Columbia.  The first two along with coal bed methane helped justify our enthusiasm for PanCanadian Petroleum that then became PanCanadian Energy that finally became EnCana.  The merger with Alberta Energy brought the Jonah Field in Wyoming to the combined company.   

The British Columbia project that we have in mind was just highlighted two weeks ago when we were with Encana in Calgary.  Randy Eresman, President of EnCana’s Onshore North American division, drew for us a wavy band three to five miles wide and 175 miles long that described a prehistoric underground formation analogous to the Great Barrier Reef off Australia.  The reef appears filled with natural gas of which Encana expects to recover 2.5 trillion cubic feet, little of which has been booked as proven to date.  The company has been accumulating land on the trend for four years and announced its coup only after the land acquisition had been largely completed.  Technological innovations in drilling with wells that have a horizontal section and do not introduce water to the formation were necessary for the economic recovery of the sweet gas.

 

In the valuation sense we are usually skeptical about giving much credit for future projects.  As a result on our McDep Ratio, Encana ranks in the middle of ten stocks in our Large Cap Natural Gas and Oil group.  If the company’s prospects materialize in more rapid growth as management projects and as seems credible, the stock should perform well in a group that we believe has attractive appreciation potential.  Actually we think the company has a good shot at becoming the most highly valued stock in the group.  With that in the back of our mind we will be careful about recommending taking profits too early. 

June 24, 2002; Meter Reader: Not All Slime and Sleaze