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December
3, 2001; Western Natural Gas Exceeds Benchmark for December Our
final commodity price observation has a bearing on the expected February
declaration of monthly distribution for recommended San Juan Basin Royalty
Trust. The El Paso San Juan index
for December appears likely to be about $2.30 per million btu's (see Chart on
next page from Bloomberg). Recent
quotes for the Henry Hub in Louisiana, the reference pricing point for the
industry, have been less than $2.00. Perhaps
the western producers will make up for ground lost with an artificially low
index for October. We
have resisted publishing estimates of monthly distributions for SJT believing
that the fluctuations could just as readily be misleading as helpful.
Look for a change in our practice before long.
For the time being one can see that the low index price for October
points to a low distribution to be declared in December.
Perhaps some unsuspecting unitholders may sell on a low distribution.
The more relevant indicators to us are the pickup in price for January
and February on the basis of history below, and the continued steep climb in
futures for the next few years. December 3, 2001; Meter Reader: After Enron Bloomberg Chart of El Paso San Juan Monthly Index |